From the perspective of the industrial chain, the price of the mining industry has accelerated its downward trend, which indicates that although the government has launched micro stimulus measures such as infrastructure, the demand for resources is very weak; the downward trend of the prices of raw materials and processing industry is still sustained, but the downward speed has been slightly reduced, and the micro stimulus effect has not been clearly confirmed, at least from the perspective of sustainability, it is still insufficient.
Against the backdrop of this price system, other economic data released next week, even if improved, will not boost confidence.Therefore, it is natural for the government to continue to implement economic stimulus and monetary easing.The logical basis for us to be optimistic about the stock market is not how much the economic situation has improved, but because the most panicked period has passed, the policy shift has appeared, continuous stimulus measures are expected to be introduced one after another, M1 growth rate will rise month by month, and investor sentiment will change.The intermediate rebound of China’s stock market is basically driven by policy changes.With the comprehensive improvement of policies, funds and emotions, the comprehensive rebound will come as scheduled.
Rebound from large cap stocks to small cap stocks
Different from the previous rebound, this rebound should be a round of comprehensive rebound from large cap stocks to small cap stocks, from main board to gem, from cycle to consumption, including all kinds of plates, but the rebound time and strength of each plate are different.In the first stage of the rebound, gem and technology stocks played a vanguard role, and the main sectors rose by about 20%.In the second stage, aerospace and military stocks took over the lead and also rose by nearly 20%.With the disclosure of macro data, a number of cyclical stocks will fight back and rise sharply.In the next stage, the sectors leading the market rebound will start according to the prosperity of the industry.The first is the industries whose prices have bottomed out and rebounded.According to the data in June, the industries with rapid price rebound are chemical fiber manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, oil and gas exploitation, wood processing and agricultural and sideline products processing.The price trend is shown in Figure 2.
Secondly, although the prices of some industries are still going down, their upstream prices are falling more, leading to the increase of gross profit and the rise of stock prices.The industries with rapid increase in gross profit are mainly steel smelting, non-ferrous metal processing, chemical fiber manufacturing, cement manufacturing and thermal power generation.一些行业的蔓延趋势如图3所示。