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「600470股吧」世界杯即将结束,大反弹全面启动(2014-07-12)


600470股吧——戴厚良

  很多人认为,如果数据不好,在第四季度数据好之前,市场不会启动。我认为,如果经济形势如此,第四季度的市场将结束。股市是对未来的投资,投资者为自己的预期而折腾。当现实证实了投资者的预期,市场就会转向。只有在超级市场时期,股市才会与实体经济同步。

600470股吧
  对外贸易的增长趋势可能已经逆转

  6月份,本周只公布了贸易和价格数据。从5月份的数据来看,这一增幅为1.5%,高于5月份的进口增幅。特别是出口复苏的加快,为中国经济增添了一丝希望。但由于去年基数问题(去年6月份比5月份低4个百分点),实际上6月份出口数据低于5月份,外贸实际呈现下降趋势(见图1)。
  从物价指数来看,中国经济好坏参半。CPI指数同比为2.3%,环比为-0.1%,均低于上月。从定基指数来看,也有稳中有跌的趋势,但PPI走势弱于预期。6月份,PPI同比下降1.1%,降幅较5月份收窄,但环比下降0.2%,降幅大于5月份。如果从长期趋势看,PPI定基指数继续下降,没有任何好转迹象,所谓经济企稳回升的趋势并不明显,经济增长的动力仍然不足。

600470股吧——000963

  From the perspective of the industrial chain, the price of the mining industry has accelerated its downward trend, which indicates that although the government has launched micro stimulus measures such as infrastructure, the demand for resources is very weak; the downward trend of the prices of raw materials and processing industry is still sustained, but the downward speed has been slightly reduced, and the micro stimulus effect has not been clearly confirmed, at least from the perspective of sustainability, it is still insufficient.

  Against the backdrop of this price system, other economic data released next week, even if improved, will not boost confidence.Therefore, it is natural for the government to continue to implement economic stimulus and monetary easing.The logical basis for us to be optimistic about the stock market is not how much the economic situation has improved, but because the most panicked period has passed, the policy shift has appeared, continuous stimulus measures are expected to be introduced one after another, M1 growth rate will rise month by month, and investor sentiment will change.The intermediate rebound of China’s stock market is basically driven by policy changes.With the comprehensive improvement of policies, funds and emotions, the comprehensive rebound will come as scheduled.
  Rebound from large cap stocks to small cap stocks

600470股吧——002669

  Different from the previous rebound, this rebound should be a round of comprehensive rebound from large cap stocks to small cap stocks, from main board to gem, from cycle to consumption, including all kinds of plates, but the rebound time and strength of each plate are different.In the first stage of the rebound, gem and technology stocks played a vanguard role, and the main sectors rose by about 20%.In the second stage, aerospace and military stocks took over the lead and also rose by nearly 20%.With the disclosure of macro data, a number of cyclical stocks will fight back and rise sharply.In the next stage, the sectors leading the market rebound will start according to the prosperity of the industry.The first is the industries whose prices have bottomed out and rebounded.According to the data in June, the industries with rapid price rebound are chemical fiber manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, oil and gas exploitation, wood processing and agricultural and sideline products processing.The price trend is shown in Figure 2.
  Secondly, although the prices of some industries are still going down, their upstream prices are falling more, leading to the increase of gross profit and the rise of stock prices.The industries with rapid increase in gross profit are mainly steel smelting, non-ferrous metal processing, chemical fiber manufacturing, cement manufacturing and thermal power generation.一些行业的蔓延趋势如图3所示。

  房地产放松管制

600470股吧——中国神华股吧

  市场情绪变化的另一个重要原因是房地产限购政策的解除。由于一般刺激政策已不足以对冲房地产下行压力,政府正逐步放宽限购政策。截至本周,已有3个城市明确取消限购政策。相信从下周开始,会有更多的城市跟进,燎原之势势不可挡。有了合作,房地产板块也出现了震荡上行的趋势。可以说,只要房地产板块能够止跌回升,就不会有股市不涨的板块。
  客观地说,本轮股市上涨是一次中间反弹,其驱动力是估值、政策、货币、情绪等利好因素的叠加与共振。由于各种因素耦合点集中,疫情强度将略强。我估计这轮行情将持续两个月左右,反弹300点左右,上证综指2280点上方,进入风险区。由于放松限购并不能解决房价下行的趋势,中国经济长期放缓的局面难以扭转。9月份以后,A股市场将随着全球股市进入下行周期。

  投资者要把握好这次反弹的节奏,不要盲目悲观,也不要盲目追高,板块轮换,耐心潜伏,渐进买入,逢高必出。

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