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600429股吧_宏观数据将密集发布(2014-08-08)


600429股吧——什么是内盘外盘

  即日起,7月份宏观经济数据将陆续发布,投资者将密切关注经济基本面将交出怎样的成绩单。

600429股吧
  即日起,7月份宏观经济数据将陆续发布,投资者将密切关注经济基本面将交出怎样的成绩单。随着近半个月股市的上涨,周期股在“经济复苏”的预期下出现反弹。不过,根据该机构的预测,宏观经济的改善可能无法很快跟上步伐。短期内,经济数据可能会让人感觉不温不火。短期技术指标居高不下的股指似乎正面临本轮行情启动以来的首次考验。

  今日公布外贸数据,周六公布CPI和PPI
  公开资料显示,政府有关部门将在未来几天内公布2014年7月的经济数据。具体而言,贸易数据将于8月8日公布;CPI和PPI数据将于8月9日公布;固定资产投资数据、工业增加值、零售额等实体经济数据将于8月13日公布;货币信贷数据将于8月16日前公布。

600429股吧——吉林市医学会

  分析人士指出,本轮市场启动前,关于宏观经济复苏的一个重要判断是外贸复苏。即将公布的外贸数据能否继续印证乐观预期相当关键。未来看来,通胀指数短期内还是可以的。相反,固定资产投资和房地产销售数据更值得投资者关注。

  高盛:CPI同比基本稳定,外贸力度可能不够
  高盛高华研究部宋宇团队认为,近期PMI数据显示,实体经济增速继续强劲,7月份实体经济增速继续强劲。“我们预计7月份工业增加值同比增速将从6月份的9.2%降至9%。1-7月,固定资产投资同比增速将由6月份的17.3%小幅上升至17.4%。预计7月份零售额同比增速将由6月份的12.4%小幅回落至12.3%。小幅放缓反映了CPI通胀率可能下降的影响。”.

600429股吧——80网

  高盛宏观研究部认为,进出口同比增速可能放缓。预计7月份出口同比增速将由6月份的7.2%小幅回落至6.7%,但经季节性调整后的环比增速将由-1.5%升至2.6%。预计进口同比增速将由6月份的5.6%降至-1.0%,季度增速将由4.4%降至-1.3%。进口同比增速基数高于出口。大宗商品融资对贸易相关库存可能继续形成拖累,因此进口环比增速可能不如一般政策推动的复苏期强劲。
  在通胀指标方面,高盛预计CPI同比增速将基本稳定,而PPI同比增速将有所上升。最新研究显示,7月份食品价格增速可能略有放缓,预计7月份CPI同比增速将从6月份的2.3%降至2.2%。PPI同比增速可能从6月份的-1.1%升至-0.9%。

  货币条件可能比6月份略紧

600429股吧——b股行情

  流动性一直是a股投资者的敏感话题。日前,安信顶级卡高尚文博士指出,解释本轮上涨的一个关键因素是6月份银行信贷和社会融资量较大。市场下一步的走势取决于流动性的改善能否持续。从短期来看,他认为流动性从1个月到6年注定是不可逆转的。
  高盛的观点也需要引起关注。宋宇团队的研究指出,“货币当局认为6月份的政策放松幅度有点过大。”。The recent rise in inter-bank interest rates and the slight appreciation of RMB reflect the willingness of the monetary authorities to slightly tighten the monetary situation.However, the purpose of policy tightening is to control the degree of monetary situation rather than the fundamental directional change of policy stance.

  According to its forecast, the scale of RMB loans in July is lower than the level of 700 billion yuan in the same period last year, and M2 growth may slow down.The net outflow of foreign exchange may decrease, but the change of fiscal deposits may not be as favorable as that in June (fiscal expenditure grew by 26.1% year-on-year in June).It is estimated that the scale of RMB loans in July will be 670 billion yuan, the implied year-on-year growth rate in July will drop to 13.8% from 14.0% in June, and the seasonally adjusted month on year growth rate will drop to 13.0% from 14.5% in June.It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in July will drop to 14.1% from 14.7% in June, and the seasonally adjusted month on year growth rate will drop to 12.1% from 15.2% in June.

  Technologists: facing the test for the first time since the launch of this round of market
  As for the adjustment of A-share market on Thursday, a senior person from Guangzhou technical school told the investment express:”the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both pull out of the medium and negative line, which will increase the risk of short-term head formation.In particular, from July 25 to July 28, there was an obvious short jump gap in the market index, which also exacerbated the psychological pressure of market adjustment This is an important test since the launch of this round of market.

  However, from the views expressed by some influential fundamentalists, the voice of “bull market” is still unabated.Zhao Danyang, for example, has been advocating that the bull market has started.The optimistic view of Guotai Junan and other institutions, which have been singing a lot in the early stage, will not change because of the temporary adjustment.

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