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「600409资金流向」新高路上A股三问(2014-09-04)


600409资金流向——600155

  本周以来,主要股指纷纷强势上攻,集体创出反弹新高。上证综指不断放量,开启新一轮逼空行情。A股虽然取得了长足的进步,但仍有三个问题需要解决:一是逼空行情能否延续;二是反弹过程中主要股指是否会分化;三是股市如何演绎,“老”主题再现辉煌,还是“新”主题主导市场?
  强势格局有望延续

  上周沪深股市震荡回调,上证综指一度突破2200点关口。在此期间,上海股市的日成交量迅速下降到1000亿元左右。连续震荡数个交易日,大盘突然弱势回调,让投资者有些意外。不过,9月初,大盘一扫前期阴霾,继续大幅放量反弹,并开启了新一轮空头行情。上证综指昨日上涨1.00%,收于2288.63点,再创反弹新高,宣告近一年的箱体震荡格局已经打破;深证成指昨日上涨0.90%,收于8115.87点,再创今年新高。昨日沪深股市成交量达到3984.78亿元,也是反弹以来的新高。The effective coordination of volume and price shows that investors are enthusiastic about participating.

600409资金流向
  In terms of industries, since September, all sectors have generally risen, with Shenwan national defense and military industry, electrical equipment and media index rising by 7.67%, 4.94% and 4.94% respectively; compared with this, Shenwan non bank financial, mining and banking index rising by 2.84%, 2.47% and 2.39% respectively.It is worth noting that, except for the military industry sector, which is significantly higher than other industry indexes, there is not a big gap in the growth of other industry sectors, and there is a pattern of rotating rise among the sectors.

600409资金流向——000503股吧

  In terms of individual stocks, different from the previous situation of “individual stocks do not rise, index rises”, the activity of individual stocks increased significantly during this round of rebound.Since September, 2255 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have risen, 146 stocks have risen by more than 10%, 691 stocks have risen by more than 5%, and the trading limit of individual stocks in a single trading day has been maintained at about 30, highlighting the effect of making money in the stock market.Among the 64 stocks that have fallen, individual stocks have generally declined less, Benxi steel plate has the largest decline, reaching 10.12%, and the rest have fallen below 4%.From this point of view, in this round of short market, the activity of individual stocks has increased significantly, and the investors who hold shares generally benefit.

  Analysts pointed out that stable economic data, loose funds and rising policy expectations are the three major pillars of this round of rebound.In August, both HSBC PMI and Zhongcai PMI fell back, lower than market expectations, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy in the third quarter was greater.The intensive issuance of new shares has also caused a disturbance to the capital side of a shares, and the liquidity in the market has become tighter.The supporting role of economy and capital in the market is weakened.However, the recent executive meeting of the State Council has determined a number of stimulus policies, and the policy expectations are still positive.When the pace of economic recovery hesitates, the policy is expected to add weight in time, and the support of policy expectation for the market is still solid.Considering that the positive factors to boost the market’s continuous upward attack are not yet available, there may be twists and turns in the market in the future, but the strong pattern will continue.
  Index linkage effect expected to highlight

600409资金流向——山西焦化吧

  2013年,以小盘成长股为代表的创业板指数走出单边牛市,而同期主板指数维持震荡格局;创业板指数在2014年初短暂上涨后,开始了长达3个多月的一波回调,而主板指数则以震荡的态势转为新平台窄震。主板指数偏离小盘股指数。
  不过,在近期的“新高”路上,各指数之间的联动却相当明显。昨日,继上证综指和深证成指创出新高后,以创业板综指和中小企业综指为代表的小盘股指数也创出新高。创业板综合指数昨日上涨0.91%,至1567.47点,创历史新高;中小企业板综合指数昨日上涨0.82%,至7398.79点,创2011年4月以来新高。从昨日盘面看,中小板综合指数和创业板综合指数出现大幅回调。但午后,在主板指数大规模上攻的推动下,小盘股指数重拾上涨势头。市场呈现大盘股领涨、小盘股跟随上涨的格局。

  分析人士指出,主板指数和小盘指数分别代表大盘股周期股和小盘成长股两大类。此前,市场一度看好小盘成长股,而小盘指数则占据主导地位。七月底,上海香港证券交易所和国有企业改革给大盘周期性股票带来了活力。主板指数强劲反弹,市场风格不断变化,导致主板指数与小盘指数出现背离。但目前,随着风格的均衡化,偏离的持续时间将缩短,各指标的联动效应将凸显。

600409资金流向——000027股吧

  一方面,通过拉升市场周期股,有助于拉升市场,但随后当市场准备震荡时,资金仓位调整和换股需求逐渐旺盛,个股市场开始布局。当然,市场风格不会偏向蓝筹股。中小盘股也将活跃起来,主要股指或将齐头并进。另一方面,7月份以国资改革为主线的主题投资上涨,热点话题主要集中在周期股。最近,文化媒体、网络游戏、第三方支付等日益壮大的军团的主题也开始活跃起来。目前,热点并不局限于主板、创业板和中小板。Both the concept of growth corps and the themes in the blue chip camp have opportunities to express themselves.Once the hot spots start to rotate, the market style will gradually tend to equilibrium, and the main board index and small cap index will tend to be consistent.
  Mining old themes and identifying new hot spots

  From the perspective of the recent market, the hot spots are switching back and forth.It is worth noting that the real hot spot has not yet come to the fore, whether it is rooted in the old theme, or quickly start a new hot spot, which makes investors quite tangled in the layout of the future market.Market participants said that digging deep into old themes, screening new hot spots or better coping strategies.

  First of all, the theme investment with policy as the axis is worth investors to dig deep.Such as the reform of state-owned enterprises, the restructuring of military research institutes, the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect and other theme investment in the early market performance, but the early speculation is often based on policy expectations.With the gradual progress of the reform and the introduction of specific rules, the reform dividend will be further revealed, which is not only a speculation concept for the relevant listed companies, but also a substantial benefit.It can not only improve the valuation of the relevant listed companies, but also is expected to promote their performance improvement.It is suggested that investors closely follow the policy clues, and the old themes such as the local state-owned enterprise reform target, the high ah premium rate under the background of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect or the scarcity of A-share target should be focused on.
  Secondly, for the hot spots in emerging industries, investors need to carefully screen, not blindly chasing high.New hot spots in emerging industries such as graphene, fuel cell and holographic mobile phone are the targets of frequent fund speculation.Considering that the valuation and stock price of such varieties are at a high level, lack of fundamental support, and the risk of participating in the speculation of such concepts is high, investors need to identify the persistence of such new hot spots, and it is not appropriate to blindly chase up such varieties.

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