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「600366股票行情」私募激辩A股:熊市未结束VS仿效美股反弹(2014-10-27)


600366股票行情——002488

  What is the current short-term situation of a shares?From a technical point of view, the answer is no doubt: not optimistic.
  The Shanghai stock index continued to pull back last week (October 20-24), with four consecutive days of negative K-line and two consecutive days of negative K-line.From the perspective of trading volume, Shanghai stock market, Shenzhen stock market main board and growth enterprise market are significantly reduced.Does the fall of both volume and price mean that the short-term situation of a shares is not good?What is the impact of the opening time of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect and the closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on a shares?

600366股票行情

  Yesterday (October 26), “daily economic news” reporter (hereinafter referred to as NBD) and Shenzhen Tinghao investment management company chairman Kang Haoping, Shenzhen “Qianhai first line hedge investment enterprise (limited partnership)” general manager Hu Zhizhong two private exchanges.
  Rebound time is long, there is a need for adjustment

600366股票行情——水十条受益股

  NBD: in the past two weeks, a shares continued to adjust.The Shanghai index fell 1.49% in the week of October 17, and increased to 1.66% in the week of October 24.The weekly K-line was negative for two consecutive weeks.How do you view the continuous correction of a shares?

  Kang Haoping: judging from the recent correction range of the Shanghai stock index, it is a mild technical correction, which does not mean that this wave of market is over.For this correction, I think that first of all, this wave of market has lasted for three months, and the time is relatively long, so there is naturally a demand for correction on the technical side.In addition, in terms of two major news, first, the delayed opening time of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect made the market slightly disappointed; second, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee closed with further emphasis on the rule of law, which was generally considered to be good for the market in the medium and long term.However, the market continued to adjust because there was no mention of some previously highly concerned contents in the content.
  Hu Zhizhong: we have been relatively cautious in this market.We don’t approve of this wave of rise.Because we can see that at present, many of the stocks with large gains are speculative, while the trend of the whole blue chip stocks is relatively low.For example, the weekly K-line of the CSI 300 index is two consecutive negative, and the weekly K-line of the Shanghai 50 index is four consecutive negative.After a long bear market, blue chip’s recent performance is still so low, so we can only be cautious about the market.

600366股票行情——中证

  至于创业板的一些个股,比如低市值、重组题材的概念股,涨幅很大。我们认为,这可能是一些主要机构的无奈之举。由于金融、房地产等传统蓝筹股的低迷,它们不得不转向其他板块和个股进行投机。
  对于未来,我们认为如果真的要出现一波行情,还是希望在蓝筹股板块。对于沪深300指数,我认为它代表了目前市场上一些最好的公司。目前,相关个股没有动作,但市场却爆出了一些垃圾股,这使得A股市场出现了两个极端:非常便宜的个股和非常昂贵的个股。

  至于未来是否有市场,我们认为,如果上海香港证券交易所及时开放,应该有一些蓝筹股市场。目前市场上出现了很大的分歧,但冷静下来,新股包括次新股都有一些恶性炒作,有的一上来就有10个涨停板。这些情况很不正常。

600366股票行情——上海期货

  美国股市在下跌8%后反弹6%
  NBD:A股7、8月份继续上涨,一方面受到政策刺激和改革红利的支撑,另一方面受到经济持续复苏的支撑。但从9月份CPI、PPI以及10月份刚刚发布的汇丰PMI指数来看,数据均低于预期。你如何理解当前的宏观环境?

  康浩平:我不认为这波市场行情是建立在经济促进的基础上的。因此,不宜用经济数据来分析A股的回调。股市的兴起,是基于对改革红利的预期并未完全消除。7月份以来的市场是政策性行情。因此,仍然需要从政策的角度来分析。从经济数据来看,在这一波市场上涨中相对较弱。上周末公布的汇丰PMI数据依然疲弱,因此市场对货币宽松的预期依然存在。

  胡志忠:我们不认为上涨是受到宏观数据和基本面的支撑。现在经济数据不好,基本面需要巩固。唯一的希望是加紧改革。市场一直在根据改革的预期进行投机。比如今年军工题材的炒作,就是因为一些科研院所注入军工上市公司。这种改革有望带来相关股票的上涨。然而,在不清楚公司未来能否提升业绩的背景下,开始无休止的猜测并不正常。比如,在上述对军工股的炒作中,我们注意到,似乎没有一个国家的军工产业能够成为经济支柱。
  NBD:上周上证指数连续4年为负,成交量也明显萎缩。类似情况也出现在深圳主板和创业板。成交量和价格双双下跌是否意味着未来不好?你怎么看广能的巨变?

  康浩平:我认为,虽然目前成交量和价格都有所下降,但从技术角度看,这轮行情还是不可能说已经结束。从美国股市过去几年的经验来看,每当股指下跌5%左右,即几百点到1000点,美国股市就会奇迹般地反弹。如纳斯达克指数9月18日上涨至4593.43点,10月16日下跌至4217.39点,跌幅为8.19%;10月24日一路反弹至4483.72点,反弹幅度为6.3%。我认为a股有望复制美股走势。
  胡志忠:现在的情况非常复杂。我们不能说下跌的性质,但我们认为有足够的理由进行调整。也许长熊市还没有结束。创业板指数也连续两周处于相对高位下跌,或许只是一次大调整的开始。此外,此前上海市场预期的“香港证券交易所”尚未开放。如果开盘时间尚不确定,相关蓝筹概念股的恢复市场也会受到上海香港证券交易所预期的支撑。目前,市场困难重重。

  本周关注重组
  NBD:中共十八届四中全会上周闭幕。在这次重要会议之后,你对本周的市场有何看法?您对投资者把握市场热点有何建议?

  康浩平:首先我们注意到,根据中国证监会关于新的退市制度的意见,两所修订的上市规则将于11月16日起施行。目前市场上有两种观点。一是一些公司的重组需求会更加迫切,因为重组只需要备案,不需要审批。随着新的退市制度的实施,不进行重组为时已晚。Therefore, I think that the speculation of concept stocks, including the reform of state-owned assets, will continue; on the other hand, under the background of economic data still to be consolidated, it is not easy for the index to continue to rise, so it may be more structural.
  Hu Zhizhong: because the official implementation time of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect has not yet been announced, although many stocks have been adjusted a lot during this period, there has not been a big correction in financial and other concept stocks, and these blue chips are also the backbone of the market.We note that from the news side, the market is relatively pessimistic.From Tuesday to Thursday, the funds previously applied for new shares will be unfrozen.I think at that time, bulls may at least fight back.If there is no counterattack, investors should be more careful.

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