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Rational view of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect: the risk at the end of the year is greater than the opportunity

Our reporter Ma Manran
  Next Monday, A-share will usher in the era of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect.Undoubtedly, Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect is a key step for A-share internationalization.Many institutions expect that if Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect runs smoothly, Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect is expected to go online next year.Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect has a positive impact on A-share market in the medium term, but there is little difference among institutions.However, this week’s market was volatile, and the short-term impact of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect on a shares was quite different, including the starting point theory, the peak theory and the high volatility theory.


  The risk is greater than the opportunity at the end of the year

  Goldman Sachs, an international investment bank, released a report this week calling the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect an unprecedented opportunity.Goldman Sachs believes that the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect essentially produces the world’s second largest stock market in terms of market value, which will be second only to the New York Stock Exchange.A shares are undervalued in the global market for a long time (compared with GDP), especially when a shares are more sensitive to economic growth (compared with H shares).China’s share of world GDP is 12.3%, while the share of a stock market value is only 10.5%.Therefore, the positive significance of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect for the medium-term trend of a shares is self-evident.
  But at present, many investors are worried that the volume of this week indicates that the market may change a lot.Next Monday, the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect will be officially opened, and the worry of “see the light die” will hover over a shares.Shenwan’s latest research report says that the Shanghai stock index will break 3000 points for the market to continue to be bullish in 2015.However, the volatility of the A-share market will rise sharply during the year, and the phased withdrawal rate may exceed 200 points.At the same time, the market was seriously polarized this week, with banks and other large cap stocks pulling up for a time.中国银行周二甚至提高了上限,上海股市本周上涨2.2%。不过,创业板市场和中小板跌幅明显,本周创业板市场指数暴跌5.4%。那些炒作度较高的概念品种,本周已经开始做首跌,市场“二八”分化明显。








  事实上,上海香港证券交易所的推出将加速市场模式的转型。以创业板为代表的高溢价小盘股进入回调期阶段,主板低估的蓝筹股将有更多的资金关注和表现。因此,申银万国认为,投资风格的“裂变”也是市场的一个重要组成部分:如果把中国经济看成一只股票,那么这个股票正从成长股向价值股转变。This also determines that the investment style of the market will change from the simple “growth as king” in the past to the “parallel world” with equal emphasis on value and growth.Shenyin Wanguo predicts that the blue chip leader with high dividend and Baima growth with reasonable valuation adjustment are the preferred assets in 2015, and the blue chip leader with 20 times PE may be seen by the end of 2015.
  Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect will affect the investment philosophy of a shares.As there are some differences in the stock styles of investors in the two places, the trend of stocks with different styles will change slightly after the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect.At present, mainland investors prefer small market value growth stocks, while Hong Kong investors prefer undervalued blue chips.After the Shanghai Hong Kong direct link, the valuation gap between these two types of stocks will be reduced.

  But this change will be a repeated and gradual process.”In fact, the price difference of ah shares is very small.If Hong Kong investors can buy things at the same price in Hong Kong, they will not come to buy a shares.There are not many kinds of a shares to buy.For example, the valuation of the military industry stocks that are optimistic about before is in the sky.Foreign investors will certainly not take orders at a high level.On the contrary, varieties like Yili and Maotai will attract some Hong Kong investors, but I believe that the overall positive impact is limited; The bad news of Hong Kong stock connect can not be ignored.Hong Kong stock connect will encourage a lot of hot money of a shares to go to Hong Kong to pick up a bargain.The small cap stocks of a shares are more expensive than those of Hong Kong and Taiwan.” Recently, a private equity manager in Beijing is studying better investment targets in Hong Kong stocks, such as CTS Hong Kong, Phoenix Satellite TV, Sinopharm holdings, etc.
  Choose the target from the perspective of scarcity and underestimation

  From the perspective of scarcity target, a shares focus on military industry, traditional Chinese medicine, liquor and other relatively unique industries.However, the valuation of military stocks has been speculation.In addition, looking for undervalued opportunities in the two markets is what investors have to do. For example, in addition to ah comparison and industry comparison between Shanghai and Hong Kong, in the process of internationalization, we can choose those investment targets that are undervalued compared with similar international enterprises or industries.通过全球不同行业估值水平的横向比较,大致可以看出,金融、能源、白酒、稀缺资源,包括电力、铁路等公用事业的估值均低于国际平均水平。




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