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「600354资金流向」沪港通开闸须理性看待(2014-11-15)


600354资金流向——新币兑换人民币

600354资金流向
Rational view of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect: the risk at the end of the year is greater than the opportunity

Our reporter Ma Manran
  Next Monday, A-share will usher in the era of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect.Undoubtedly, Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect is a key step for A-share internationalization.Many institutions expect that if Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect runs smoothly, Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect is expected to go online next year.Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect has a positive impact on A-share market in the medium term, but there is little difference among institutions.However, this week’s market was volatile, and the short-term impact of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect on a shares was quite different, including the starting point theory, the peak theory and the high volatility theory.

600354资金流向——亚圣投资

  The risk is greater than the opportunity at the end of the year

  Goldman Sachs, an international investment bank, released a report this week calling the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect an unprecedented opportunity.Goldman Sachs believes that the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect essentially produces the world’s second largest stock market in terms of market value, which will be second only to the New York Stock Exchange.A shares are undervalued in the global market for a long time (compared with GDP), especially when a shares are more sensitive to economic growth (compared with H shares).China’s share of world GDP is 12.3%, while the share of a stock market value is only 10.5%.Therefore, the positive significance of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect for the medium-term trend of a shares is self-evident.
  But at present, many investors are worried that the volume of this week indicates that the market may change a lot.Next Monday, the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect will be officially opened, and the worry of “see the light die” will hover over a shares.Shenwan’s latest research report says that the Shanghai stock index will break 3000 points for the market to continue to be bullish in 2015.However, the volatility of the A-share market will rise sharply during the year, and the phased withdrawal rate may exceed 200 points.At the same time, the market was seriously polarized this week, with banks and other large cap stocks pulling up for a time.中国银行周二甚至提高了上限,上海股市本周上涨2.2%。不过,创业板市场和中小板跌幅明显,本周创业板市场指数暴跌5.4%。那些炒作度较高的概念品种,本周已经开始做首跌,市场“二八”分化明显。

600354资金流向——603980

  不过,中金公司首席策略师王汉峰认为,看好中国市场的逻辑并未改变。未来,5740亿的日成交量将被打破。明年,日均成交量有望超过1万亿。但短期市场波动可能不可避免。6月份以来,1400多只个股涨幅超过30%,获利回吐压力加大。不过,王汉峰认为,下跌不会太深,回调是买入的好机会。
  总的来说,舞台上是否出现200点的下跌还很难说。然而,在小盘股进入回调阶段后,题材股普遍转向投机,周期性股票普遍出现滞涨,市场充分预期并反映出上海-香港股市的连线,股指很难在市场兑现时继续大幅上涨。年底压力增大。相反,股指进入高位、年底波动的可能性较大,市场整体风险大于机会。在上海香港证券交易所的开通和未来改革政策不断出台的背景下,机构更注重2015的布局。

  国际资本的比重将迅速上升  

600354资金流向——个人商业养老保险

  那么,在上海香港证券交易所开盘后,A股会发生什么变化?中金公司预计,由于香港对上海投资的每日限额,预计最初交易日将在很短的时间内全部认购。内地投资者参与香港证券交易所的热情不容低估。粗略估计,初始阶段参与“香港证券联营”的潜在资金为1800亿元。
  在资本规模方面,在试点项目初期,香港证券交易所的总额度为2500亿元,日配额为105亿元,上海证券交易所的总额度为3000亿元,日配额为130亿元。假设每天的订阅已满,上述金额只够一个月。同时,从更长远的角度来看,上海香港股票联姻更有可能给出预期,也就是说,上海-香港股票联手的成功将带动随后的深圳香港股票联姻,甚至是上海美股的联姻,包括注册制度,T+0,A股被纳入摩根士丹利资本国际指数,以及一系列国际贸易制度和规则将完成。在一两个月内,上海香港证券交易所在理论上可以在十年内达到QFII的规模。瑞银证券还预计,一年内,国际投资者在A股市场持有的股票市值将从3500亿元上升到9000多亿元,占总市值的8%以上。这些都明显促进了a股的中期走势。

  但是,我们也应该注意到,上海香港证券交易所是双向流通的。上星期五,内地投资者在上海香港证券交易所也免收了个人所得税三年的消息被公布。可以说,在a股流入国际资本的同时,也会有大量的国内资本流出。目前,无法测量流出量。然而,不可否认的是,上海香港证券交易所也增强了国际投资者对A股的呼声,这是市场投资理念的再平衡,这在本周已经反映在市场上。

  重复中的风格转换或实现
  受上海-香港证券联市即将开放的预期推动,上海股市与深圳股市的分歧在本周也有所加剧,市场内部结构分化日趋严重。“上海香港证券联股对于A股的意义不仅在于增量资本,还在于资本双向流动。近两周,我们立即调整仓位,减持创业板军工股仓位,买入银行、保险等蓝筹股。”北京骏和泰达投资管理公司投资总监胡斌说。

  事实上,上海香港证券交易所的推出将加速市场模式的转型。以创业板为代表的高溢价小盘股进入回调期阶段,主板低估的蓝筹股将有更多的资金关注和表现。因此,申银万国认为,投资风格的“裂变”也是市场的一个重要组成部分:如果把中国经济看成一只股票,那么这个股票正从成长股向价值股转变。This also determines that the investment style of the market will change from the simple “growth as king” in the past to the “parallel world” with equal emphasis on value and growth.Shenyin Wanguo predicts that the blue chip leader with high dividend and Baima growth with reasonable valuation adjustment are the preferred assets in 2015, and the blue chip leader with 20 times PE may be seen by the end of 2015.
  Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect will affect the investment philosophy of a shares.As there are some differences in the stock styles of investors in the two places, the trend of stocks with different styles will change slightly after the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect.At present, mainland investors prefer small market value growth stocks, while Hong Kong investors prefer undervalued blue chips.After the Shanghai Hong Kong direct link, the valuation gap between these two types of stocks will be reduced.

  But this change will be a repeated and gradual process.”In fact, the price difference of ah shares is very small.If Hong Kong investors can buy things at the same price in Hong Kong, they will not come to buy a shares.There are not many kinds of a shares to buy.For example, the valuation of the military industry stocks that are optimistic about before is in the sky.Foreign investors will certainly not take orders at a high level.On the contrary, varieties like Yili and Maotai will attract some Hong Kong investors, but I believe that the overall positive impact is limited; The bad news of Hong Kong stock connect can not be ignored.Hong Kong stock connect will encourage a lot of hot money of a shares to go to Hong Kong to pick up a bargain.The small cap stocks of a shares are more expensive than those of Hong Kong and Taiwan.” Recently, a private equity manager in Beijing is studying better investment targets in Hong Kong stocks, such as CTS Hong Kong, Phoenix Satellite TV, Sinopharm holdings, etc.
  Choose the target from the perspective of scarcity and underestimation

  From the perspective of scarcity target, a shares focus on military industry, traditional Chinese medicine, liquor and other relatively unique industries.However, the valuation of military stocks has been speculation.In addition, looking for undervalued opportunities in the two markets is what investors have to do. For example, in addition to ah comparison and industry comparison between Shanghai and Hong Kong, in the process of internationalization, we can choose those investment targets that are undervalued compared with similar international enterprises or industries.通过全球不同行业估值水平的横向比较,大致可以看出,金融、能源、白酒、稀缺资源,包括电力、铁路等公用事业的估值均低于国际平均水平。
  此外,上海香港证券交易所的佣金贡献将为证券公司带来可观的收益。继上海香港证券联营之后,证券公司的创新业务将更加活跃,而上海股市将在前后的香港股市热络中升温。此外,上海香港证券联会将推动A股的国际化交易规则,如实施T+0,这也将对证券公司产生长期利益。

  一般来说,上海香港童丽有一个良好的蓝筹股市场,投资者也可以通过分配一系列被动指数基金来获得市场回报。在选择基金时,我们需要关注基础指数与上海香港证券交易所之间的协议。

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