截至11月28日，由于A股银行股价飙升，9家银行在股市两侧上市的ah估值情况已完全逆转。Over the past year, the situation of H-share premium of seven banks has changed to that of only three banks whose H-share valuations exceed A-share, and the premium range is very limited.
As of November 28, in the past more than a year, the situation of H-share premium of seven banks has changed to that of only three banks whose H-share valuation exceeds A-share
”Judging from the current trading volume of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect, it is not the incremental capital of the Shanghai Stock connect that props up A-share banks, but if the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect brings about changes in investment philosophy and kills the H-share premium of banks listed in both places, I don’t think it is too much,” senior market participants told the Securities Daily.
As of November 28, due to the soaring stock prices of A-share banks, the ah valuation situation of nine banks listed on both sides of the stock market has been completely reversed.Over the past year, the situation of H-share premium of seven banks has changed to that of only three banks whose H-share valuations exceed A-share, and the premium range is very limited.
H-share discount of 6 banks
As of the close of last Friday, among the nine banks listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong at the same time, three banks had H-share premium and six banks had Hong Kong share discount.Among them, the premium rate of China Merchants Bank is the highest, but only 5.3%; the second is ICBC, with a premium rate of 3.7%; in addition, Agricultural Bank of China has also realized H-share premium, but with a premium rate of only 2.8%.The other six banks all present the situation of H-share discount.Among them, the highest discount rate is CITIC Bank, with a discount rate of 24.8%; the second is Everbright Bank, with a discount rate of 17%; the third is Minsheng Bank, with a discount rate of 7.4%; in addition, the discount rates of Bank of China, Bank of communications and China Construction Bank are 4.3%, 4.1% and 0.4% respectively.
In fact, just less than half a year ago, seven of the nine banks still realized the Hong Kong stock premium.Among them, the premium rate of six banks remained at a double-digit level, with the highest premium rate even close to 20%.Among the two H-share discount banks, the highest discount rate was less than 15%.
Top H share premium rate again
In the past two years since the middle of 2012, the attitude of Hong Kong stock market towards China Merchants Bank can be described as “changing face faster than turning a book”.}
From August 2011 to mid-2012, in the vast majority of trading days, due to the continuous fermentation of pessimism of Hong Kong investors towards Chinese bank stocks, bank stocks have maintained the pattern of A-share premium over H-share.当时，在两地上市的8家银行中，只有招商银行实现了H股溢价，溢价率超过15%，而包括四大银行在内的其他银行在H股市场上没有得到足够的认可，呈现出a股溢价和H股折价的局面，显示出独特性招商银行在当时H股市场投资者心中的地位。
去年6月，汇金启动了对四大行的第五轮增持。2013年6月13日，中央汇金通过上海证券交易所交易系统，以买入方式增持工农业中国建设四大行股份，并自增持之日起6个月内继续以自身名义增持二级市场股份。去年12月，增持计划完成。公告显示，汇金增持工行1.75亿股、农行1.79亿股、中国银行1.13亿股、建行1.03亿股。According to the average transaction price of the four major banks in the six months from June 13 to December 12 last year, the total amount of capital used by Central Huijin to increase its holdings of the four major banks in this round is about 1.9 billion yuan.
After the completion of Huijin’s shareholding increase, the attitude of Hong Kong stock funds towards the four major banks was not as enthusiastic as in the past.Instead, they entered a stable period.The overall performance of H shares of the four major banks in the past six months was also weaker than that of a shares.
Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect
Changing investment philosophy
Interestingly, in the past six months, not only H-share market investors have changed their style in choosing bank stocks, but A-share investors have also experienced changes in their ideas.In other words, the denominator of H / a ratio effect is undergoing significant changes.
On November 17, the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect was officially opened to traffic, and banking stocks, which have been placed high hopes, also ushered in the “first show under the new normal of investment concept”.However, perhaps because the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect’s positive has been hyped by the secondary market ahead of time, the overall performance of A-share banks on that day was not amazing.However, it is undeniable that the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect has changed the attitude of A-share investors, especially institutional investors, who are not willing to “lift the sedan chair for blue chips”.For the A-share market, institutional investors can re evaluate and recognize the “wealth effect” of bank blue chips, which obviously means the birth of new “rules of the game”.
There are many differences between the two markets in terms of investment philosophy, system construction, market supervision, investor education, etc. the previous advantage of the A-share market is low valuation, while the advantage of the Hong Kong market is more international.”Now that the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect has been launched, the investment strategy of bank stocks may change, and even present a new way of playing that is not completely consistent with the current two markets.Especially for large funds such as institutional investors, the significance of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect is definitely more than the mutual proximity of valuations.” the above market analysis said, “which market has wealth effect, capital will flow into which market If the performance of the A-share market is strong, the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect will show a net injection of funds; if the performance of the Hong Kong stock connect is stronger than that of the A-share market, the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect may show a net outflow of funds relative to the A-share market.