Sheep mild, not the protagonist of the current round of mad cow market, so pull out the mad cow behind the “new makers” “wolves.”.Some economic observers believe that when the sheep go out of the market and shout that the wolf is coming, they often can’t wait for a long time.Looking back, the wolves are already in the “sheep pen” and are having a honeymoon with the “sheep Princess” who has no time to run out.The stock market becomes a circle of wolves and sheep.This view deserves attention.
As a barometer of the economy, China’s stock market recently staged a “myth”: after seven years of “bear market”, it ushered in a short “bull market”, so some people cheered “bull market”.
However, before the cheers came to the ground, a shares encountered a “roller coaster” market.Since the afternoon of December 9, the stock index has dived sharply.The amplitude of the Shanghai index exceeded 8% and that of the Shenzhen index was nearly 9%.On that day, there were more than 170 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets falling to their limit.Over the next few days, the stock index moved forward in shock.
It’s surprising that China’s stock market has been able to walk out of the independent rising market in the context of global stock market falling one after another.
Indeed, after seven years of bear market, investors’ bear market thinking has been deeply rooted.At the moment, China’s stock market continues to soar, but awakens the stock account that has been sleeping for many years.
Jefferies, a foreign-funded organization, released a report that it is optimistic about the rising trend of a shares.The Shanghai composite index is expected to reach a high of 4050 points (equivalent to 15 times of the predicted 2016 P / E) next year, and the Hang Seng state-owned enterprise index is expected to climb 15420 points (equivalent to 10 times of the predicted 2016 P / E), with 38% and 37% increases respectively.
When the securities companies deduce the “go to the market”, many investors can not stand the temptation of this huge profit-making effect.From the social group of shareholders, more and more people focus on buying and selling securities companies.
According to the statistics of the regulatory department, the soaring stock market some time ago made nearly 400000 shareholders rush into the stock market.最新数据显示，12月1日至12月5日，A股新开户59.75万户，比前一周增长61.75%，创2007年12月14日以来新高。
According to Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and securities of Wuhan University of science and technology, since the opening of China’s stock market in 1990, a shares have gone through six rounds of “bull bear conversion” and “the stock market bears will be bull in a few years, which seems to be a rule.”But Dong Dengxin stressed that “the more the price rises, the more the price falls” has become an experience.
Dong Dengxin takes the stock market’s soaring and plummeting around 2007 as an example.It took only 10 months for the stock market to rise from 2245 points in 2006 to 6124 points in 2007, and it took 10 months for the stock market to plummet from 6124 points in 2007 to 2245 points in 2008.
”There is an objective reason for the bull market of stocks in 2007, that is, China’s economic development entered a new stage in 2007.In that year, the heavy chemical industry and other industries made brilliant achievements and the profits reached the peak, which promoted the overall rise of the market to a certain extent and was supported by a certain foundation.”
Song Qinghui, a well-known financial commentator, pointed out that there was no obvious sign of the current property market warming up.On November 21, the central bank announced a cut in interest rates and the stimulation of the interconnection of the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, which made China’s originally relatively narrow investment channels unanimously favor the stock market.
”At present, the price earnings ratio of a shares is at a historical low, only about 10 times.Such a low valuation has also attracted a lot of funds to be absorbed by the stock market.In addition, the reform of state-owned enterprises and the expectation of innovation in the capital market have promoted it.The strong recovery of the US economy is also good for China’s economic development.”
”The current bull market is just a facade.”Song Qinghui said frankly that in terms of the stock market, there are more signs of speculation than investment in a shares.The stock market, which should be used as an economic barometer, has deviated from its economic fundamentals.No matter from the perspective of macro policy or from the perspective of stock market fundamentals, there is no basis to support the bull market.
The recent downturn of China’s economy is obvious to all.This round of bull market is more like an “artificial bull market” of a shares triggered by policy driven and liquidity surge, which is a false prosperity scene divorced from the support of economic fundamentals.
”At present, the stock market is driven by liquidity.It rises fast and falls fast.The soaring stock market is certainly abnormal, and it is bound to fall sharply after the surge.”Song Qinghui said.