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「600309股票行情」中国A股的赶集行情:狼群已入“圈”羊群无路可逃(2015-01-05)


600309股票行情——st商务

  Sheep mild, not the protagonist of the current round of mad cow market, so pull out the mad cow behind the “new makers” “wolves.”.Some economic observers believe that when the sheep go out of the market and shout that the wolf is coming, they often can’t wait for a long time.Looking back, the wolves are already in the “sheep pen” and are having a honeymoon with the “sheep Princess” who has no time to run out.The stock market becomes a circle of wolves and sheep.This view deserves attention.
  As a barometer of the economy, China’s stock market recently staged a “myth”: after seven years of “bear market”, it ushered in a short “bull market”, so some people cheered “bull market”.

  However, before the cheers came to the ground, a shares encountered a “roller coaster” market.Since the afternoon of December 9, the stock index has dived sharply.The amplitude of the Shanghai index exceeded 8% and that of the Shenzhen index was nearly 9%.On that day, there were more than 170 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets falling to their limit.Over the next few days, the stock index moved forward in shock.

600309股票行情
  It’s surprising that China’s stock market has been able to walk out of the independent rising market in the context of global stock market falling one after another.

600309股票行情——广发银行官方网站

  Indeed, after seven years of bear market, investors’ bear market thinking has been deeply rooted.At the moment, China’s stock market continues to soar, but awakens the stock account that has been sleeping for many years.

  Jefferies, a foreign-funded organization, released a report that it is optimistic about the rising trend of a shares.The Shanghai composite index is expected to reach a high of 4050 points (equivalent to 15 times of the predicted 2016 P / E) next year, and the Hang Seng state-owned enterprise index is expected to climb 15420 points (equivalent to 10 times of the predicted 2016 P / E), with 38% and 37% increases respectively.
  When the securities companies deduce the “go to the market”, many investors can not stand the temptation of this huge profit-making effect.From the social group of shareholders, more and more people focus on buying and selling securities companies.

600309股票行情——中国石油价格网

  According to the statistics of the regulatory department, the soaring stock market some time ago made nearly 400000 shareholders rush into the stock market.最新数据显示,12月1日至12月5日,A股新开户59.75万户,比前一周增长61.75%,创2007年12月14日以来新高。
  经济学家金世炎认为,中国的投资者大多是散户,他们善于跟风炒作,就像行为金融学定义的“羊群效应”。羊群行为会加剧市场的非理性波动,导致人们自发地上下追逐。然而,羊的温顺本性绝不是本轮疯牛市场的主角,因此导致了疯牛背后的“新制造者”和“狼”。

  众所周知,上证指数突破2500点后的上涨,主要是因为大象的舞动,以及“一桶黄金、两桶石油”的大规模飙升。与2007年5月一样,中信证券在飙升的股市中起到了主导作用,其股价在一个多月内从不足13元涨到25元以上。人们在问:谁是领大象跳舞的导演?

600309股票行情——181周线

  鉴于金融股的飙升,中石油、中石化几乎都是国有控股企业,最合理的猜测是国有资金的控制人,而国有资金能够迅速做出投资股市决策的机构也只是国有控股的保险公司。
  社保基金的投资大部分被拆分成部分,近期也在积极入市。此外,还有几大保险公司的资产管理机构,特别是近五年兴起的安邦集团。

  如果安邦集团7000亿元资本中有15%~20%可以投到二级市场,光这家公司就可以成为一匹“黑马”,将1000亿元的投资引向股市。安邦集团今年两次增资,增持民生银行和招商银行股份,成为民生银行第一大股东。

  股市低迷期间,日均成交额略高于1100亿元。今年1至9月,日均成交量约2500亿元。12月初交易量的突然飙升,首先创造了中国股市的新交易量纪录,随后又创造了全球股市单日交易量的新纪录。
  如此巨额的资金显然是新资本入市,因此被称为“狼群”,但并无贬义。

  羊群行为主要来源于财富信息的部分传递(功率放大器)。一般来说,大多数投资者报告的是好消息,但不是坏消息。尤其是中国人,入市后想发财,所以只讲五关,不讲麦城。
  “羊”是一个沉迷股市多年的投资者。对过去的记忆决定了对今天的判断。与他们相比,那些引进新资本入市的“狼”,既有无知者的勇气,也有无所畏惧者的勇气,这将改写股市的成交量纪录,甚至改变市值中心,突破原有指数波动区间。

  当现场的羊受到不完全信息的影响,形成所谓的理性价值判断后,它们会惊呼:“狼来了!狼来了!他们成群结队地离开他们认为估值过高的市场,等待市场回归。
  就在羊群出逃的时候,狼群可能蜂拥而至,这就把“羊”的退市变成了一个很好的入市机会。

  就目前而言,如果两个群体的行为同时发生,就会导致不摔倒的焦虑,从而将踏空的恐惧变成“羊”的疯狂。大盘将显示,指数下跌无调整,从而不断突破上行趋势,打开上涨空间。
  “狼”的无畏和“羊”的疯狂共同推动了股市的非理性上涨。不断自我强化的牛市情绪将忽略所有负面消息。

  狼群行为在中国股市较为普遍,因为市场外流动的“失业”投资者随时可能成群结队地聚集在一起,而成熟股市外这种“失业”投资者却寥寥无几,因此往往只有羊,狼也很少。市场波动主要遵循羊群行为,理性一浪高过一浪。
  在我国,股市的涨跌幅度偏高,很容易形成蜂拥而至的退市原因。然而,当羊群赚钱的信息扩散已经构成了一个失业股东的狼群时,这两个群体的行为可能同时发生。

  羊走出市场,大喊狼来了,但它们往往等不了多久。回首往事,狼群已经在“羊圈”里,正和没时间跑出来的“羊公主”享受蜜月。股票市场变成了一个狼和羊的圈子。
  作为投资者,凯恩斯早在1934年就说过,在投资回报快速变化的背后,一定有一些莫名其妙的群体激进主义,甚至整个市场都会笼罩在看似荒谬的情绪之中。

  According to Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and securities of Wuhan University of science and technology, since the opening of China’s stock market in 1990, a shares have gone through six rounds of “bull bear conversion” and “the stock market bears will be bull in a few years, which seems to be a rule.”But Dong Dengxin stressed that “the more the price rises, the more the price falls” has become an experience.
  Dong Dengxin takes the stock market’s soaring and plummeting around 2007 as an example.It took only 10 months for the stock market to rise from 2245 points in 2006 to 6124 points in 2007, and it took 10 months for the stock market to plummet from 6124 points in 2007 to 2245 points in 2008.

  ”There is an objective reason for the bull market of stocks in 2007, that is, China’s economic development entered a new stage in 2007.In that year, the heavy chemical industry and other industries made brilliant achievements and the profits reached the peak, which promoted the overall rise of the market to a certain extent and was supported by a certain foundation.”
  Song Qinghui, a well-known financial commentator, pointed out that there was no obvious sign of the current property market warming up.On November 21, the central bank announced a cut in interest rates and the stimulation of the interconnection of the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, which made China’s originally relatively narrow investment channels unanimously favor the stock market.

  ”At present, the price earnings ratio of a shares is at a historical low, only about 10 times.Such a low valuation has also attracted a lot of funds to be absorbed by the stock market.In addition, the reform of state-owned enterprises and the expectation of innovation in the capital market have promoted it.The strong recovery of the US economy is also good for China’s economic development.”
  ”The current bull market is just a facade.”Song Qinghui said frankly that in terms of the stock market, there are more signs of speculation than investment in a shares.The stock market, which should be used as an economic barometer, has deviated from its economic fundamentals.No matter from the perspective of macro policy or from the perspective of stock market fundamentals, there is no basis to support the bull market.

  The recent downturn of China’s economy is obvious to all.This round of bull market is more like an “artificial bull market” of a shares triggered by policy driven and liquidity surge, which is a false prosperity scene divorced from the support of economic fundamentals.
  ”At present, the stock market is driven by liquidity.It rises fast and falls fast.The soaring stock market is certainly abnormal, and it is bound to fall sharply after the surge.”Song Qinghui said.

  然而,已经疯狂的牛市会在信息流中鼓励更多的“狼”入市,甚至温顺的“羊”也会发疯。一般认为,当前股市普遍保持震荡上行趋势,潜力无限。
  中国股市很难改变“政策性市场”的特征。中共十八大确定的改革方向,比以往任何一次改革都更加鼓舞人心。因此,中国股市作为制度变迁的风向标,再度疯狂,何乐而不为!

  正如索罗斯所说:股市在绝望中下跌,在喜悦中上涨,在疯狂中结束。一次又一次的开始。

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