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「600216股吧」股市火爆与不得不降的利率(2015-05-06)


600216股吧——新疆证券

一年来,定向降准、综合降准、降息的货币政策交替出台。中国股市上涨,股指和成交量反复上涨。对于实体经济能否通过持续宽松的货币政策和不断提高的货币资金需求,近期有学者表示担忧,但它推动了资本市场的繁荣。除货币政策外,还应出台更多财政政策、抑制投机等配套措施。中国一季度经济数据和4月份先行指标显示,中国经济下行压力正在加大。Since 2015, the downward pressure on China’s economy has further intensified.Both the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and foreign trade import and export data show that domestic economic activity is very weak.Recently, a media report said, “the central bank is expected to cut the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans for financial institutions and the deposit and loan interest rate of personal housing provident fund again, and the possibility of a 0.5% cut in the interest rate is huge.”
Theoretically speaking, when the economy is under downward pressure, the market’s expectation of monetary policy easing is gradually strengthened.From the traditional tools of interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction to the quantitative easing policies of the United States, Europe and Japan, the rise of the capital market has been pushed up.Loose monetary policy is indeed conducive to the recovery of the real economy and the improvement of corporate profitability, and the stock market, as an economic barometer, will reflect the trend of economic recovery in advance.

In fact, the main driver of this round of bull market is capital oriented.Wen bin, assistant president and chief researcher of the Research Institute of China Minsheng Bank, believes that under the expectation of reform, the current bull market is driven by funds.In addition to the liquidity released by policy, the construction of market mechanism, overseas capital, investment of enterprises and residents have become the main sources of funds.

600216股吧
The alternative use of monetary policy tools aims to release more liquidity for the operation of the real economy and reduce the level of interest rates.From the actual situation, after the use of monetary policy tools, the domestic stock market rebounded strongly, but the profitability of enterprises has not been substantially improved, and the capital price of the real economy is still high.The phenomenon of “financial hot and entity cold” has not changed.

600216股吧——财富创业

Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, believes that at present, the effect of the stock market on the real economy should be said to be the effect of capital diversion, which is greater than the effect of capital support for the real economy.The vicious circle of the real economy and the financial market shows that the economy is relatively poor, which forces the monetary policy to relax, the monetary policy to relax and the expectation of monetary policy to relax, makes the stock market go further bull, further attracts incremental funds into the market, diverts market funds, and brings a more serious pressure on monetary policy to relax.

浙江大学教授、中国人民大学国际货币研究所执行所长本盛霖教授认为,货币政策放松后,如果释放出来的流动性不进入实体经济,而是进入资本市场,对整个社会和实体经济都没有好处。如果是这样,最好不要降低利率。
文斌还表示,要防止通过放松货币政策释放出来的资金流向资本市场炒股,而不是真正促进投资、消费等实体经济的改善。

600216股吧——600219股吧

4月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出,要控制好稳健的货币政策,注意疏通货币政策向实体经济的传导渠道。
北京大学国家发展研究院教授黄一平认为,货币政策是一种总量工具,很难发挥结构性功能。货币政策可以为结构调整创造条件,但不一定能调整经济结构。目前,央行应进一步采取放松货币政策的措施,但不应指望货币政策放松能显著拉动经济增长。

需要指出的是,经济发展有赖于实体经济的发展,金融要为实体经济服务。对此,本盛霖教授指出,要着力引导资金投向实体经济,货币政策要与财政政策紧密挂钩。货币政策只起到“放水”的作用。当其他渠道受阻或受阻时,资金只能流向资本市场。

600216股吧——双星新材股票

去年上半年以来,货币政策工具的使用方式由“定向”调整转向“综合+定向”。中国人民银行一直在探索运用结构性货币政策点对点支持实体经济。可见,“三农”、小微企业、棚户区改造贷款增速确实快于普通贷款。但毕竟,货币政策的结构性作用是有限的。
文斌指出,要实现结构调整,货币政策要与财政政策相一致,比如减税、增加公共支出。仅靠货币政策完成结构调整任务是“心有余力不足”。

当前,我国货币政策仍面临压力和挑战。一方面,在新增外汇占款减少的情况下,应通过降低存款准备金率来弥补基础货币供给不足。另一方面,通胀反弹可能会限制降息空间。同时,与繁荣的股市形成鲜明对比的是,在货币政策放松的情况下,如何抑制投机,引导投资者成为价值投资者,是对政策的又一次考验。

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