Editor’s note: the policy dividend of the real estate industry is continuing to ferment, and the signs of the recovery of the commercial housing market are spreading across the country, especially the strong recovery of the first-line real estate market with sufficient demand.In the secondary market, undervaluation, interest rate cut expectations and reform and transformation have brought another round of investment opportunities for real estate stocks.And with the transformation of real estate stocks, the valuation of real estate stocks is also reshaping.
Real estate sings the song of spring
Our reporter Xie Changyan
Real estate is becoming one of the most important measures for the government to deal with the decline of economic growth.In the environment of interest rate reduction, reserve requirement reduction and policy loosening, the real estate market began to pick up in the first quarter of this year, and the trading volume of the first and second tier cities was significantly higher than that of the third and fourth tier cities.At the Politburo meeting held by the Central Committee on April 30, real estate was proposed for the first time as an important component of steady growth, which reassured the real estate policy in the second quarter.
Strong recovery of first tier property market
After the May Day holiday, the news of the recovery of the real estate market all over the world came to us.Guangzhou and Shenzhen successively exposed the CD ROMs, and the house prices rose significantly.Beijing’s new housing transactions are picking up strongly, with a sharp rise of 50% in April on a month on month basis.As of May 5, Beijing’s commercial housing inventory has dropped to 78000 units, a new low in nearly 10 months.Compared with the booming real estate market in the first and second tier cities, the trading volume in the third and fourth tier cities has decreased instead of increasing.According to the monitoring data of Zhongyuan Real estate, during the May Day holiday, real estate transactions in the third and fourth tier cities fell by 20%.This differentiation is not only in the three days of the May Day holiday.数据显示，4月份一线城市住宅成交面积环比增长30%。从1-4月累计住宅成交量来看，近七成二线城市环比上涨，三线城市环比下降7%（见图1）。 除了销量的反弹，一线城市的房地产投资也出现了反弹。一季度，全国房地产投资增速仅为8.5%，仅为去年同期16.8%增速的一半。但一线城市仍逆势大幅增长，北京和广州增速最快，分别为23.8%和20.8%，而远在东北的黑龙江省房地产投资增速为-35.1%，居全国最后。辽宁、陕西和青海也出现负增长。
丁祖玉也从另一个方面继续看好房地产市场的暖春。也就是说，在本轮牛市中，获利回吐的资金有可能进入楼市。他分析，去年“卖房炒股”的人肯定是最专业的。与依然蜂拥而至的新投资者相比，这些资深老投资者在市场再创新高后，会把风险控制放在首位。”In addition to the current housing policy, the most appropriate direction is to improve the quality of living, not to make money.”
”Nuclear weapons” has not yet been launched
Although a series of measures conducive to the healthy development of real estate are gradually implemented, and the aftereffect of these measures is still slowly emerging.Wang Sheng believes that the relaxation of real estate policy will continue to add weight, and the policy will gradually replace short-term regulation with long-term regulation mechanism, and gradually move towards marketization.In the future, the government will play a more important role in the field of real estate livelihood security, while the market will meet the increasingly diversified housing needs of residents and optimize the resource allocation of commercial, industrial, pension, cultural and other structural real estate.
When it comes to the marketization of real estate, the purchase restriction in the first tier cities has been criticized.”The adjustment of purchase restrictions in the first tier cities should be the largest nuclear weapon in a short period of time, which has a vital impact on the recovery of consumer confidence and the release of improved demand.The first tier cities are the last front of the purchase restriction at present, and the reason for maintaining the purchase restriction is absurd, so it should be adjusted as soon as possible.” Ding Zuyu said.
There are still more research institutions that believe that the financial policy on real estate should be further relaxed, because such policies play an important role in both the consumer side and the demand side.For example, we can separate the development loan from the mortgage loan, give the upper limit to each, and increase the opening limit to the mortgage loan, so that bank funds can be more inclined to enter the field of residential consumption.Chen Cong, a real estate analyst at CITIC Securities, also said that China’s MBS (mortgage-backed bonds or mortgage-backed securitization) residential finance special bonds should also be accelerated.We should promote MBS by means of institutional innovation, release the existing credit line, not only avoid flooding, but also guarantee to support individual reasonable housing demand.Although the bank’s return on basic credit assets is low, if provident fund or other institutional innovation can promote MBS, it can make the mortgage loan line more abundant.
In addition, the sword of real estate registration and real estate tax policy has been hanging on the head of the real estate industry.In this regard, Ding Zuyu said that in 2014, the situation of large-scale real estate enterprises not making money has been widespread.建议暂停对房地产企业预征企业所得税和土地增值税。毕竟，只有市场上的企业实体才能盈利，产业才能实现健康、可持续的发展。