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【600212资金流向】地产股投资机会来敲门(2015-05-09)

600212资金流向

600212资金流向——600997

  Editor’s note: the policy dividend of the real estate industry is continuing to ferment, and the signs of the recovery of the commercial housing market are spreading across the country, especially the strong recovery of the first-line real estate market with sufficient demand.In the secondary market, undervaluation, interest rate cut expectations and reform and transformation have brought another round of investment opportunities for real estate stocks.And with the transformation of real estate stocks, the valuation of real estate stocks is also reshaping.
Real estate sings the song of spring

Our reporter Xie Changyan
  Real estate is becoming one of the most important measures for the government to deal with the decline of economic growth.In the environment of interest rate reduction, reserve requirement reduction and policy loosening, the real estate market began to pick up in the first quarter of this year, and the trading volume of the first and second tier cities was significantly higher than that of the third and fourth tier cities.At the Politburo meeting held by the Central Committee on April 30, real estate was proposed for the first time as an important component of steady growth, which reassured the real estate policy in the second quarter.

600212资金流向——人民币兑美元走势

  Strong recovery of first tier property market

  After the May Day holiday, the news of the recovery of the real estate market all over the world came to us.Guangzhou and Shenzhen successively exposed the CD ROMs, and the house prices rose significantly.Beijing’s new housing transactions are picking up strongly, with a sharp rise of 50% in April on a month on month basis.As of May 5, Beijing’s commercial housing inventory has dropped to 78000 units, a new low in nearly 10 months.Compared with the booming real estate market in the first and second tier cities, the trading volume in the third and fourth tier cities has decreased instead of increasing.According to the monitoring data of Zhongyuan Real estate, during the May Day holiday, real estate transactions in the third and fourth tier cities fell by 20%.This differentiation is not only in the three days of the May Day holiday.数据显示,4月份一线城市住宅成交面积环比增长30%。从1-4月累计住宅成交量来看,近七成二线城市环比上涨,三线城市环比下降7%(见图1)。  除了销量的反弹,一线城市的房地产投资也出现了反弹。一季度,全国房地产投资增速仅为8.5%,仅为去年同期16.8%增速的一半。但一线城市仍逆势大幅增长,北京和广州增速最快,分别为23.8%和20.8%,而远在东北的黑龙江省房地产投资增速为-35.1%,居全国最后。辽宁、陕西和青海也出现负增长。
  房地产市场的复苏是房地产政策放松的直接结果。房地产专家、易居中国CEO丁祖宇表示,“330”新政和“五两”第二套营业税政策直接影响到房地产的需求侧和交易侧。特别是营业税政策的实施简单、有效、立竿见影。此外,存款准备金率下调政策使得万亿资金流入市场,房地产也是受益最大的行业。

600212资金流向——阳线

  那么,一、二、三、四线城市为何陷入冰火两重天的局面?对此,戴德梁行华北区董事总经理王胜在接受本刊采访时,从产业结构和人口吸纳的角度进行了分析。王胜表示,一线城市在经济发展水平、产业结构、人口规模和凝聚力、国际商务平台等方面处于领先地位。因此,一线房地产市场需求充足,供需基本平衡,二三线城市不存在高库存的风险压力。对于房地产企业来说,一线城市的投资回报周期相对较短。因此,充足的需求和较高的项目溢价能力给房地产企业带来了更强的动力。一旦政策放松,一线城市的成交量和价格将首先上涨。
  多重效益,潜力巨大

  虽然放松的新政给房地产市场迎来了一个小春天,但这首“春歌”刚刚唱响,高潮还没有出现。业内人士指出,虽然房地产新政立竿见影,但一些政策的落实仍需时日,后遗症将慢慢显现。“327新政提到供大于求的城市减少土地供应,但效果并不明显。这些城市不减少土地供应,也没有人买地。此外,购买商品房解决保障性住房供应问题也存在这个问题,很多库存量大的城市保障性住房过多,需要时间慢慢消化。”丁祖玉说

600212资金流向——汇源通信股吧

  记者还看到,在推进房地产新政方面,二三线城市较为活跃。如西安4月30日发布《关于调整公积金首付比例的通知》,将144平方米及以下住房的首付比例下调至20%,佛山也从5月1日起取消限购。截至本周,广州、深圳等城市尚未公布实施二套住房新政。虽然上海、北京等一线城市宣布实施新政,但银行的执行却被“打折”,这影响了新政的“效力”。
  王胜表示,从中长期来看,房地产企业的发展机会不仅集中在一线城市。虽然一线城市市场需求充足,购买力较强,但鉴于房价已经处于高位,限购令并未放松,短期内房价大幅上涨的可能性不大。此外,北京还采取各种措施缓解人口压力带来的城市问题。随着京津冀一体化等区域发展规划的快速实施,以及城市化发展和区域一体化建设的推进,产业转移将给二三线城市乃至四线城市带来发展机遇,也将给房地产业带来发展机遇在这些地区也将成为最大的受益产业之一。

  丁祖玉也从另一个方面继续看好房地产市场的暖春。也就是说,在本轮牛市中,获利回吐的资金有可能进入楼市。他分析,去年“卖房炒股”的人肯定是最专业的。与依然蜂拥而至的新投资者相比,这些资深老投资者在市场再创新高后,会把风险控制放在首位。”In addition to the current housing policy, the most appropriate direction is to improve the quality of living, not to make money.”

  ”Nuclear weapons” has not yet been launched
  Although a series of measures conducive to the healthy development of real estate are gradually implemented, and the aftereffect of these measures is still slowly emerging.Wang Sheng believes that the relaxation of real estate policy will continue to add weight, and the policy will gradually replace short-term regulation with long-term regulation mechanism, and gradually move towards marketization.In the future, the government will play a more important role in the field of real estate livelihood security, while the market will meet the increasingly diversified housing needs of residents and optimize the resource allocation of commercial, industrial, pension, cultural and other structural real estate.

  When it comes to the marketization of real estate, the purchase restriction in the first tier cities has been criticized.”The adjustment of purchase restrictions in the first tier cities should be the largest nuclear weapon in a short period of time, which has a vital impact on the recovery of consumer confidence and the release of improved demand.The first tier cities are the last front of the purchase restriction at present, and the reason for maintaining the purchase restriction is absurd, so it should be adjusted as soon as possible.” Ding Zuyu said.
  There are still more research institutions that believe that the financial policy on real estate should be further relaxed, because such policies play an important role in both the consumer side and the demand side.For example, we can separate the development loan from the mortgage loan, give the upper limit to each, and increase the opening limit to the mortgage loan, so that bank funds can be more inclined to enter the field of residential consumption.Chen Cong, a real estate analyst at CITIC Securities, also said that China’s MBS (mortgage-backed bonds or mortgage-backed securitization) residential finance special bonds should also be accelerated.We should promote MBS by means of institutional innovation, release the existing credit line, not only avoid flooding, but also guarantee to support individual reasonable housing demand.Although the bank’s return on basic credit assets is low, if provident fund or other institutional innovation can promote MBS, it can make the mortgage loan line more abundant.

  In addition, the sword of real estate registration and real estate tax policy has been hanging on the head of the real estate industry.In this regard, Ding Zuyu said that in 2014, the situation of large-scale real estate enterprises not making money has been widespread.建议暂停对房地产企业预征企业所得税和土地增值税。毕竟,只有市场上的企业实体才能盈利,产业才能实现健康、可持续的发展。

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