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600199股吧_暴跌难改牛市基本面,“慢牛”仍需文火(2015-06-03)


600199股吧——psy

当很多投资者都盼望股市冲击5000点大关时,等来的却是“一盆冷水”。 5月28日,沪指大跌6.5%,从4900点上方跌回4600点附近,市场几乎所有板块都下跌4%以上。

600199股吧
股市创下年内第二大单日跌幅,原因何在? 未来市场将何去何从? 投资者又该如何应对?

多重利空造成暴跌
回顾5月28日的行情走势,沪指小幅高开,早盘时,市场尚在乐观传递“沪指冲击5000点”的信息。 然而,当沪指摸至4986.50点的新高后,毫无预兆地掉头下行,接连跌破4900点、4800点、4700点,最后收报4620.27点,大跌321.45点。

600199股吧——协定存款利率

无独有偶。 2007年5月30日,沪深两市均遭重挫,上证综指下跌281.84点,深证成指下跌829.45点,跌幅均逾6%。 不计ST股和未股改股,两市共有859支个股跌停。

因此,不少投资者担心“530”暴跌会重演。 “这个阴影是影响投资者的一个不可忽视的因素。” 光大证券首席经济学家徐高在接受中国经济导报记者采访时表示。
在徐高看来,除了投资者的心理因素,政策层面和资金层面的影响也很重要。

600199股吧——首航高科

汇金减持被认为是股市大跌的导火索。 根据港交所公告,中央汇金于5月26日减持建行和工行A股,涉及金额超35亿元。
“虽然减持力度不是很大,对A股的长期影响也难以一时确定,但短期波动很难避免。” Xu Gao said that overall, the recent stock market has accumulated considerable growth, especially the margin trading has reached 2 trillion yuan.Therefore, under the stimulation of Huijin reduction news, short-term operation aimed at rapid arbitrage.

Xu Gao believes that the influence of short-term liquidity factors at the capital level can not be ignored.23 new shares, represented by China nuclear power, will be issued soon, which may lock in about 8 trillion yuan of subscription funds, setting a new record of freezing funds for new share subscription.”The market blood loss caused by this may be the direct reason for the sharp drop of the stock market.”

600199股吧——600189

“Slow bull” still needs economic foundation
Investors and regulators of China’s capital market have reason to reflect: is the bull market of a shares rising too fast?How long can this bull market last?

Perhaps history can give us some answers: in more than a year before October 2007, the Shanghai composite index more than tripled to a record high of 6124.Unfortunately, in the year after that, the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted to nearly 1800, and many Chinese investors had to “heal” in the long bear market in the next seven years or so.

This bull market is not inferior to the last one.In the face of expanding investor enthusiasm and accumulating market risks, regulators do not want the “mad cow” to reappear, but give the market the expectation of “slow bull”.
The recent research report of Minsheng Securities pointed out that the three main logic of the current bull market, monetary easing, residents’ wealth redistribution and reform expectations have not changed.The biggest theme of the bull market is that the real benefits of the reform of state-owned enterprises have not been fully reflected by the market, the potential of some industries has not been fully tapped, and the rise of the direct financing market is still on the way.After the return of new capital, the market will regain the upper chips.State owned enterprise reform is expected to continue to strengthen, will become an important force to support the market in the near future.

中央财经大学金融学院教授何强在接受《中国经济报》记者采访时表示,指数持续上涨导致的风险累积快速释放,是从“疯牛”向“慢牛”转变的阵痛。只有经济基本面总体向好,实体经济实质向好,股市才能有“慢牛”的基础。
对于牛市能持续多久,贺强表示,在长期熊市调整形成的牛市中,管理层希望看到“慢牛”,而不是大跌,因此中期牛市格局不会改变。

贺强指出,虽然4月份规模以上工业企业利润由负转正,但总体经济尚未完全恢复,积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策没有改变。所有这些都对整个股市有利。
徐高提醒,虽然有流动性支撑,但随着股指持续走高,风险会不断累积。投资者应保持谨慎,充分意识到市场的潜在风险。

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