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【600143金发科技股票】来时汹汹去时匆匆(2015-09-08)


600143金发科技股票——川化吧

  截至9月2日(上周三),沪深股市融资余额连续12天下降至9592亿元,为2014年12月18日以来首次。
  截至9月2日(上周三),沪深股市融资余额连续12天下降至9592亿元,为2014年12月18日以来首次。

  融资余额相应下降自然是A股暴跌。那么,在融资余额下降的过程中,哪些行业承受的压力更大?从制度层面看,融资余额是否已降至合理水平?
  根据沪深证券交易所(9月7日)最新数据显示,截至9月2日,沪深证券交易所融资余额为9591.54亿元,已是融资余额连续第12天下降,这也是自2014年12月18日以来首次跌破1万亿元。与此同时,今年初上证综指也回落至3100点。招商证券的研究报告显示,虽然银行等权重板块在近一周内全力护盘,但融资余额仍快速回落,表明大量融资资金正在外逃。

600143金发科技股票——获利比例

  有私募内部人士表示,两融余额的减少有利于缓解过去一段时间市场大幅调整带来的恐慌情绪,对个股的影响也会有所分化。一方面会给当前估值过高的板块带来压力,另一方面也可能使个股在弱市中获得资金追捧。

  融资余额两个半月下降57%
  两融余额的上升是上半年市场火爆的重要推动力。市场从去年下半年的2000年开始,今年上半年上升到5178家。同时,融资余额也迅速扩大到2.27万亿,对市场上涨有显著的助推作用。东方财富数据显示,自2014年6月以来,这两家金融机构的余额一直在4000亿元以上。值得注意的是,A股牛市始于2014年7月,随后几个月,两个金融市场的余额稳步上升。2014年12月,A股牛市成功站在1万亿的平台上,实现了量的突变。

600143金发科技股票——汽车保险费用计算

  随着指数上升,2015年5月底融资余额也达到2万亿元,半年内融资余额翻了一番。与此同时,上证指数从2014年12月的3234点跃升至2015年5月29日的4611点。随后,2万亿元融资余额维持了两个月,6月12日上证指数也达到5178点的高点。
  随后,A股市场在6月中旬遭遇强烈震荡,从此开始了去杠杆化的步伐。融资余额由6月18日最高时的2.27万亿元大幅下降至7月初的1.3万亿元左右。此后略有反弹,但在强制平仓和主动减仓的双轮驱动下,两家金融机构的规模再次大幅下滑。截至9月2日,两融余额已跌破1万亿元大关,较最高水平下降57%,同期上证指数下跌40%。

  业内人士认为,股市的暴涨暴跌与融资余额的变化密切相关。此次两融余额跌破万亿元,主要是受证券公司自查自纠、融资方主动避险、指数震荡寻底等多重因素影响。

600143金发科技股票——反射

  承压板高估
  对于两融余额的下降,深圳一位私募人士表示,两融余额的减少可以在一定程度上降低股市的整体杠杆水平,缩小股市的波动幅度,有助于缓解过去一段时间市场剧烈调整带来的恐慌情绪。

  对于具体的投资品种,两融余额的减少给高估值品种带来了不小的压力。8月31日,计算机及国防工业板块融资净偿还额明显高于其他板块。在个股中,融资净还款额在中国卫星、乐视等个股中也排名前列。这些品种是市场上典型的高估品种。计算机行业的市盈率为61.3倍,国防军工行业的市盈率为177倍。工业部门的估值处于历史高位。

  业内人士表示,这些高估值行业的整体业绩增长呈现下降趋势,而经济数据的低迷使得高估值行业继续承压,而低于预期的个股也不得不面临市场压力。在投资者持续大幅下跌、风险偏好下降的背景下,市场估值体系仍处于重构过程中。讲故事在现有市场已不可行,自然成为金融销售的焦点。
  另一方面,最近的市场崩盘导致越来越多的公司股价跌破净资产。从市场来看,净破发个股在弱市中受到了部分资金的追捧。此外,中国证监会等四部委已下发文件,鼓励净破发公司选择多种融资工具回购股票。

  据不完全统计,沪深股市股价跌破每股净资产的上市公司超过19家。本轮“净破发”的高发个股主要集中在银行、钢铁、矿业等板块。其中,有8家银行和3家钢铁板块、2家煤矿行业,占“净破发”个股总数的68%。
  有业内人士指出,从中长期价值投资的角度来看,目前的震荡态势给净破发个股带来了逢低买入布局的机会。虽然大盘十分疲软,但仍有资金吸纳净破发个股。上周,银行板块相比大盘整体走势强劲,“破网”银行股均迎来不同程度的上涨,钢铁板块也是如此。

  《《《
  重点股票

  去杠杆融资仅增长3%
  每日经济新闻实习记者徐帅

  8月中旬以来,A股市场延续强震模式,股指大幅下挫引发金融家大规模退市。数据显示,8月18日以来,两大金融机构余额出现罕见的“12连跌”,跌破1万亿元大关。值得注意的是,自7月22日以来,892个财务指标中,只有25个在此期间实现了融资余额的净增长,占比不到3%。
  中国平安融资余额减少67%

  8月18日,一条阴线吞噬了此前市场的反弹行情,融资板块继续降温。From August 18 to September 2, the financing balance dropped from 1.37 trillion yuan to 959.15 billion yuan, a drop of 30%.As the number one financing target, the financing balance of Ping An of China also suffered heavy losses in this wave of deleveraging.The reporter of daily economic news noted that on June 18, Ping An of China reached a historical peak of 52.369 billion yuan in financing balance, an increase of about 110% over its financing balance of 24.772 billion yuan at the end of last year.However, with the sharp drop after mid June, financing customers began to retreat on a large scale.From June 19 to July 6, financing funds of Ping An continued to flow out within 11 trading days, and the financing balance dropped from the peak to 39.754 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.615 billion yuan.After that, with the short-term rebound of the market index, the financing balance of Ping An began to stabilize simultaneously.
  From July 23, the share price of Ping An dropped from 41.04 yuan to 28.88 yuan on September 7, a drop of nearly 30%.As of September 2, the financing balance of Ping An of China dropped from 32.188 billion yuan on July 23 to 17.288 billion yuan, a decline of 46.29%, which is close to the “waist chop”.If the highest point is 52.369 billion yuan, the decline rate is as high as 67%.At the same time, since August 18, Ping An of China has reduced its daily financing purchase from 1.7 billion yuan to 505 million yuan, both of which have hit new lows this year.

  It is worth mentioning that the financing buy / financing repayment ratio of Ping An of China is still shrinking, which also means that the financing repayment pressure is still increasing.As of September 2, the ratio of financing purchase / financing repayment of Ping An was 0.21, that is, financing purchase only accounted for 21% of financing repayment.
  Net growth of financing balance of 25 targets

  The Shanghai Composite Index fell 25.3% from 4123.92 in mid July to 3080.42 yesterday.In such a rapid slump market, the financing funds of the two financial target stocks began to accelerate their flight.Statistics show that since July 22, only 25 target companies such as Meierya, Dingli shares and Jihua Group have seen net growth in financing balance.Among them, the net growth of financing balance of Meierya and Westone ranked in the top two.
  It is worth mentioning that the above-mentioned part of the subject was once again “abandoned” by financing customers after a wave of sharp rise.For example, Jiuyang shares opened a wave of market on July 22, the share price rose from 20.88 yuan to 39.50 yuan, up 89.2%.Meanwhile, the financing balance of Jiuyang shares rose from 240 million yuan to 396 million yuan, an increase of 65%.然而,8月份之后,随着股价下跌,九阳股份的融资资金再次回落至2.79亿元。

  7月22日以来,河北钢铁、泛海控股、宁波银行、天地科技等22家金融机构余额被切断。实际上,中国中车、中国铁建、交通银行等超大盘股很多。值得一提的是,他们的区间融资余额被提前“下调”了保证金。如中车股价从17.99元跌至12.97元,跌幅不到30%;宁波银行股价从15.04元跌至11.38元,跌幅达24.3%。《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,那些在牛市中飙升的高价股,在本轮举债过程中成为融资对象。如恒生电子的融资余额由46.79亿元降至26.47亿元,环比下降40.32%。其股价也从88.84元跌至41.68元,跌幅达53.1%。自8月20日以来,恒生电子融资资金持续保持净流出,融资买入金额未超过其融资偿还额。
  《《《

  制度视角
  私募:融资余额下降或见底

  每日经济新闻记者杨健
  2014年,这两家金融机构的余额开始爆发式增长,显示出市场非理性的一面。丰厚的盈利效应让不少投资者疯狂增加杠杆率,但也埋下了下跌的隐患。《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,随着2015年6月中旬后指数和两融余额的深度回调,融资方对杠杆工具的风险意识增强,投资者在7月后主动降低杠杆,并自发推动收益对两家金融机构进行健康投资。一些私募认为,融资余额下降的趋势可能已经触底。

  8月中下旬,这两家金融机构的余额大幅下降
  东方财富数据显示,2014年5月前,沪深两市金融市场余额均在4000亿元以下。随后几个月,两家融资公司余额稳步上升,融资业务也进入快速扩张期。2014年12月,A股融资余额站上1万亿元新平台,实现金额突变。随着指数的上升,2015年融资业务迎来爆发式增长。2015年5月,A股融资余额达到2万亿元,半年内融资余额翻了一番,但这一水平在今年5、6月份仅为1万亿元,A股进入去杠杆模式,融资余额持续下降,至今已跌破万亿元大关。

  数据显示,截至8月31日,融资融券余额为10592亿元。8月上旬,随着A股企稳反弹,两融余额缓慢上升。然而,随着8月18日股市再度暴跌,两融余额连续十年下降,减少3335.91亿元。特别是8月21日至26日,在市场持续下跌的情况下,两融余额在5个交易日内减少559亿元,表明融资市场可能遭遇大规模的强势平淡。
  私募股权交易称之为“双刃剑”,这是一把可以帮助股市上涨和下跌的双刃剑。融资余额持续下降,给A股资本带来一定压力。随着融资交易的降温,a股的换手率也明显下降。沪深股市的成交量已经告别了每天超过1万亿元的“常态”。受扩容难和融资净流出的影响,a股反弹受到限制。

  上述私募人士还表示,根据各大成熟市场的规律,融资总额占总市值的2%左右较为合适,A股融资融券余额保持在1万亿元左右较为合理。当近两日上证指数稳定在3000点附近时,融资净流出收窄,这或许意味着融资余额下行趋势已触底。
  监管机构持续招聘

  广发证券研究报告显示,这两家金融机构的余额占海外成熟市场市值的比例大致稳定在1%~2%的区间,但相对活跃市场中个人投资者的比例也达到了5%左右的高位。一般来说,融资总额约占总市值的2%。对于A股市场而言,这一比例大致相当于融资总额的1万亿元。这意味着暴涨之后,投资者开始意识到杠杆工具所蕴含的风险,两家金融机构的投资格局开始回归健康。
  The reporter noted that previously, in order to maintain the healthy and stable operation of the market, as early as the end of 2014, China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) carried out two rounds of regulatory rectification focusing on the two financing businesses of securities companies, and suspended the newly opened credit accounts of margin trading customers for three months.In April 2015, the CSRC put forward seven requirements to regulate the two financial institutions, and put forward the requirement that “it is not allowed to participate in OTC stock allocation, umbrella trust and other activities in any form, and it is not allowed to provide data port and other services or convenience for OTC stock allocation and umbrella trust”.

  Besides the management, some securities companies are also taking active actions.When the market was still around the 5000 point high, Shenwan Hongyuan transferred Ping’an out of the financing target.In addition, many securities companies raised the margin ratio of customers and lowered the conversion rate of the underlying guarantee, which was regarded as a strong signal for A-share to reduce leverage.In August, the Shanghai Shenzhen Stock Exchange revised the detailed rules of the two financing and changed the securities lending rules from t + 0 to t + 1 to prevent excessive leverage It is easy to cause adverse effects on market order.Since then, a number of securities companies, including CITIC, announced the suspension of margin trading.
  The reporter noted that on June 12, 2015, the CSRC announced to solicit opinions from the public on the revised Measures for the administration of securities companies’ margin trading business; the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges also solicited opinions on the revised detailed rules for the implementation of margin trading on the same day.The purpose of the regulatory authorities’ restrictions on the net capital of the two financial institutions is to supervise the risk control of securities companies, so as to reduce leverage.One of the highlights of this revision is that the amount of securities companies’ margin trading should not exceed four times of their net capital, which lies in the reasonable determination of the business scale of margin trading and the gradual demonstration of the intention to reduce leverage risk.

  业内人士表示,受监管升级、券商自查自纠、融资客主动控制风险等共同作用,相比最高峰时,当下两融余额降幅近半,投资者借道两融获取超额收益的难度显著加大,这也促使融资融券回归到健康、理性的轨道上。

600143金发科技股票

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