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「600123资金流向」长期投资才能致胜(2015-10-24)


600123资金流向——600578股票

长期投资不是热门话题。也许约翰梅纳德凯恩斯曾经说过,长期?所有人都死了。因此,似乎有无数人在这里找到了基础,从而进行了短期的“投资”。因为不受欢迎,主张长期投资的人应该非常小心。
当时,埃德加·劳伦斯·史密斯(edgarlawrence Smith)写了一本书《普通股的长期投资》(long term investment in common stock),这本书受到批评,因为它出版的时间不对,正好是1929年股市崩盘前夕。据说有诱使投资者在高股价买入并长期持有的嫌疑。事实上,这本书现在看来是一本经典之作。

我们究竟为什么需要长期投资?这是因为财富的成功积累取决于复合增长。100万元,平均每年只需增加10%。十年后,将是259万元。这只是根据股市的平均水平来计算的。数学计算很简单,但从长远来看,真正的财富积累是很困难的。
Of course, many people may think that such wealth appreciation is too slow, but they don’t know that the iron rule of wealth accumulation in the stock market is that in order to be greedy for fast, it will become very slow, while those who seem to be slow will become very fast.

600123资金流向——国有股转持

Wealth generation needs to focus on long-term returns, but it needs to avoid the interference of short-term emotions.The biggest challenge for investors is “short-sighted loss aversion”.Many people can’t stand temporary losses and tend to perform in the short term.What history teaches us is that investment needs to go through the test of time.The allocation of a portfolio needs time to achieve growth, and investors need to withstand the torture and test of the market in order to get a good return on investment.

The purpose of value investment is to hold the company’s shares at a reasonable price.As long as the company develops healthily, makes profits continuously and gets excellent return on investment, he will not sell stocks at will.Therefore, short-term stock price fluctuations will not bring him losses.Volatility does not constitute risk, which comes from the long-term value of the company.On the whole, stock price and company value are positively correlated in the long run.
Robert Hagstrom’s research shows that the correlation is 0.131 ~ 0.360 for 3 years, 0.374 ~ 0.599 for 5 years, 0.563 ~ 0.695 for 10 years and 0.688 for 18 years.Obviously, the longer the holding time, the greater the proportion of stock price determined by earnings, and the less affected by market factors.

600123资金流向——余额宝如何使用

Therefore, stock price fluctuation has nothing to do with the company’s earnings in the short term, but has a positive correlation with the long term.As for the relationship between stock price and company value, Buffett pointed out that in the long run, market value and enterprise value are synchronous, but in a certain year, the relationship between them may be unpredictable.Since the stock price is positively correlated with the company’s value for a long time, only when the company’s value declines can the principal of value investors be lost.Therefore, value investors are extremely concerned about the long-term development of the company’s value rather than the short-term fluctuation of the stock price.
For value investors, there is also a risk that the purchase price is too high.The term “high purchase price” here refers to the price relative to the intrinsic value of the company.A good company also has to have a good price.It’s not worth paying too much for a good company.Because the price of payment is directly related to the final rate of return on investment.The lower the buying price, the higher the potential return.

如果我们要进行长期投资,选择投资对象是非常重要的。根据Jeremy Siegel的研究,在过去的100年里,能够给投资者带来超额回报的是消费类和医药类股票。这些公司往往是长期稳定增长、经济护城河宽广的垄断企业。

600123资金流向——327事件

在我自己的投资实践中,长期投资确实给我带来了丰厚的回报。以伟星股份为例。10月,伟星股价创下今年以来的最高纪录。维权后,是104元。如果有人在2004年第一次上市时以7元的价格买入,一直持有到现在,那就是1500%的收入。即使我从2009年开始购买伟星股份,到目前为止,我仍有超过260%的投资收益。长期持有的优势显而易见。投资收益7年复合增长近22%。
为什么伟星能给投资者带来如此巨大的回报?纵观伟星2004年至2014年的财务报告,营业收入由3.56亿元增长至18.49亿元,复合增长16.15%;净利润由2400万元增长至2.36亿元,复合增长23.09%。强劲的业绩增长支撑着强劲的投资回报,这是投资的逻辑。

伟星可能不是一家优秀的公司,因为它只经营简单的纽扣和拉链业务。然而,如果我们能够进行长期投资,回报将是惊人的,这几乎是其他短期投资者难以完成。

经过对伟星股份的长期投资,可以看出其波动性和相关性的负面影响已经骤降到最低,短期波动性对伟星股份的回报率影响不大。只有长期投资才能赢,因为复合收益率越高,后期创造财富的比重就越大。因此,坚持长期投资是非常重要的。

600123资金流向

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